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My research has been focused mainly on the foundations of scientific inference (specifically, inductive and statistical inference). More generally, I am interested in epistemology (formal and traditional),philosophy of science, and logic (formal, philosophical, computational,and psychological aspects thereof).
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- "The Wason Task(s) and the Paradox of Confirmation" (with Jim Hawthorne), to appear in Philosophical Perspectives, J. Hawthorne and J. Turner (eds.). We'll be posting a technical addendum to the paper soon, which will contain (some of) the underlying technical details (including an improvement of our previous approach to the raven paradox).
- "Contrastive Bayesianism", to appear in Contrastivism in Philosophy, M. Blaauw (ed.), Routledge.
- "Probabilistic Measures of Causal Strength" (with Chris Hitchcock), to appear in Causality in the Sciences, F. Russo and J. Williamson (eds.), Oxford University Press. Click here to download the companion Mathematica notebook that goes along with this paper, click here for a PDF version of that notebook, and click here to download the Mathematica package PrSAT itself.
- "Strengthening the Case for Knowledge from Falsehood", Analysis.
- "Pollock on Probability in Epistemology", Philosophical Studies book symposium for John Pollock's book Thinking About Acting.
- "What is the `Equal Weight View'?" (with David Jehle) Episteme special issue on disagreement, edited by David Christensen. Click here to download the companion Mathematica notebook that goes along with this paper, click here for a pdf version of that notebook, and and click here to download the Mathematica package PrSAT itself.
- "A Decision Procedure for Probability Calculus with Applications", Review of Symbolic Logic. Click here to download the companion Mathematica notebook that goes along with this paper, click here for a pdf version of that notebook, and click here to download the Mathematica package PrSAT itself.
- "Bayesians Sometimes Cannot Ignore Even Very Implausible Theories (even ones that have not yet been thought of)" (with Neil Thomason), Australasian Journal of Logic
- "Goodman's `New Riddle'", Journal of Philosophical Logic
- "Probability, Confirmation, and the Conjunction Fallacy" (with Vincenzo Crupi and Katya Tentori), Thinking and Reasoning
- "Steps Toward a Computational Metaphysics" (with Ed Zalta), Journal of Philosophical Logic.
- "The Paradox of Confirmation", Blackwell's Philosophy Compass, Brian Weatherson and Craig Callender, eds.
- Review of Subjective Probability: The Real Thing, by Richard Jeffrey, Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews, October 2005.
- "Likelihoodism, Bayesianism, and Relational Confirmation", Synthese.
- "Logical Foundations of Evidential Support", Philosophy of Science.
- "How Bayesian Confirmation Theory Handles the Paradox of the Ravens" (with James Hawthorne) in Eells and Fetzer eds., The Place of Probability in Science, Boston Studies in the Philosophy of Science.
- "Bayesian Confirmation and Auxiliary Hypotheses Revisited: A Reply to Strevens" (with Andrew Waterman), British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. You can read Michael Strevens's (now published) reply here. And, you can read our rejoinder here (the published version is here).
- "Inductive Logic", in Philosophy of Science: An Encyclopedia, (J. Pfeifer and S. Sarkar, eds.), Routledge Press.
- "Confirmation", forthcoming in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Edward N. Zalta, ed.).
- "Probability", (co-authored with Alan Hájek and Ned Hall) in Philosophy of Science: An Encyclopedia, (J. Pfeifer and S. Sarkar, eds.), Routledge Press.
- Review of Bayesian Epistemology, by Luc Bovens and Stephan Hartmann, Mind.
- "Re-solving Irrelevant Conjunction with Probabilistic Independence" (with James Hawthorne), Philosophy of Science.
- Review of Bayes's Theorem, Richard Swinburne (ed.), Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews, November 2003.
- Review of An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic by Ian Hacking, Bulletin of Symbolic Logic.
- Review of Interpreting Probability: Controversies and Developments in the Early Twentieth Century by David Howie, Philosophy of Science.
- "A Probabilistic Theory of Coherence", ANALYSIS. [Here is a note explaining two technical corrections to my original coherence measure, and here is a Mathematica Notebook which works through the results in that note. The Mathematica notebook is also available in PDF format here.]
- Review of The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory by James Joyce, Mind.
- "Monty Hall, Doomsday, and Confirmation" (with Darren Bradley), ANALYSIS.
- "Putting the Irrelevance Back Into the Problem of Irrelevant Conjunction", Philosophy of Science.
- "Too Odd (Not) to be True? A Reply to Erik J. Olsson: 'Corroborating Testimony, Probability and Surprise'" (with Luc Bovens, Stephan Hartmann, and Josh Snyder), British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.
- "Symmetries and Asymmetries in Evidential Support" (with Ellery Eells), Philosophical Studies. To be reprinted in A. Eagle (ed.), Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings, Routledge, 2010.
- Studies in Bayesian Confirmation Theory (my Ph.D. dissertation: defended May 1, 2001 @ UW-Madison).
- "A Bayesian Account of Independent Evidence with Applications", Philosophy of Science. Philosophy of Science Association Graduate Student Prize Essay, 2000.
- "Measuring Confirmation and Evidence" (with Ellery Eells), Journal of Philosophy.
- "The Plurality of Bayesian Measures of Confirmation and the Problem of Measure Sensitivity", Philosophy of Science
- "How Not to Detect Design" --- A Review of William A. Dembski's "The Design Inference" (with Elliott Sober and Chris Stephens), Philosophy of Science. This paper has also been reprinted in Rob Pennock's collection Intelligent Design Creationism and its Critics (MIT Press).
- "Models and Reality" --- A Review of Brian Skyrms' Evolution of the Social Contract (with Elliott Sober, Ellery Eells, and Marty Barrett), Philosophy and Phenomenological Research.
- "Plantinga's Probability Arguments Against Evolutionary Naturalism" (with Elliott Sober), Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 79(2): 115-29. This paper has also been reprinted in Rob Pennock's collection Intelligent Design Creationism and its Critics (MIT Press).
- "Wayne, Horwich, and Evidential Diversity", Philosophy of Science.
- "Shortest Axiomatizations of Implicational S4 and S5" (with Zac Ernst, Ken Harris, and Larry Wos), Notre Dame Journal of Formal Logic.
- "Vanquishing the XCB Question: The Methodological Discovery of the Last Shortest Single Axiom for the Equivalential Calculus" (with Larry Wos and Dolph Ulrich), Journal of Automated Reasoning.
- "Short Single Axioms for Boolean Algebra" (with Bill McCune, Bob Veroff, Ken Harris, Andrew Feist, and Larry Wos), Journal of Automated Reasoning.
- "The Automation of Sound Reasoning and Successful Proof Finding" (with Larry Wos), in A Companion to Philosophical Logic (Blackwell Publishers, Dale Jacquette, ed.).
- "A Concise Axiomatization of RM→" (with Zac Ernst, Ken Harris, and Larry Wos), Bulletin of the Section of Logic (Department of Logic, University of Lodz).
- "Finding Missing Proofs with Automated Reasoning" (with Larry Wos), Studia Logica.
- "Distributivity in and Other Sentential Logics" (with Ken Harris), (2001) Journal of Automated Reasoning. Various OTTER, MACE, and MAGIC input files relevant to this paper are available here. John Slaney wrote a very constructive and informative reply to our paper, which can be downloaded here.
- "Comments on Some Completeness Theorems of Urquhart and Mendez & Salto" (with Ken Harris), Journal of Philosophical Logic.
- "Using Mathematica to Understand the Computer Proof of the Robbins Conjecture", Mathematica in Education and Research. See my Robbins Algebra Page for various Mathematica files relevant to this paper.
- "Visibility of Earth-Bound Satellites: A Deep Space Network Study", NASA Technical Memorandum 0011310M, prepared at Computer Sciences Corporation, August 1990.
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